PERT: optimistic time(a), pessimistic time(b), most likely(m). t=(a+4m+b)/6 Variance=[(b-a)/6]2, Project variance=sum(variance of activity of critical path) Z=(due date – expected completion date)/ project variance MAD = (4=99.9% sd3.2, 3=98% sd2.4, 2=89%)
Exponential Smooth+Trend adjust: Ft = α(At-1) + (1 – α)(Ft-1 + Tt-1) Exponential Smoothing: Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 – Ft-1)
Tt = β(Ft – Ft-1) + (1 – β)Tt-1 β = smoothing constant for trend α = Smoothing(weighting) constant Forecast include trend = Ft + Tt
Seasonality: 1) average demand of each season. 2) average all season demands 3) Find seasonal index with [1)/2)] 4) estimate next year total annual demand 5) total demand/ # of seasons*index R-Charts: UCL = D R LCL = D R
Prdvty: Why: measure of output, improvement leads to better efficiency, standard of living, higher payments to labor, capital and management, more income How: Productivity variables(labor 10% education/health , Capital 38% inflation/tax , Management 52% manage labor/capital). Changing global focus, rapid product development, mass customization, empowered employee. Reduce input/Increase output
Global: Why: reduce cost(input,tax) increase demand/market. How: Compete with differentiation, low cost, and/or fast response. 4 international operating strategies: global strategy Texas instruments, Transactional strategy cross culture learning, Multidomestic strategy Franchises, International strategy (import/export), culture, local economy, wage, resource
CH 3: Why: deadline, assigning resource/activity, spot/tackle problem, monitor cost, relation of activity, prioritize How: Project Plan(Work breakdown structure), Scheduling(Gantt Chart/PERM/CPM), Control(feedback/revise/reports)
CH 4: Why: Predict future events and make decision accordingly. Monitor cost. How: use of forecast, select forecast item, select time horizons, what model(qual/quan), gather data, make forecast, validate/use results(rarely perfect, assume stable system, family forecast better)
CH 6: Why: Cost of Quality, relates to reputation/product liability/globally. How: TQM(PDCA, six signma DMAIC, employee empowerment, benchmark, JIT, Taguchi(Robust), other Tools(graphs/diagrams)
CH 8/9: Why: Location/layout benefits, better use of location/layout, morale/safety/flexibility/interaction. How: Site(nearby)/country(culture/econ/government/labor/supplier/currency)/regional(labor/environment/government/land cost) service location. Layout: higher use of space/equip/people, flow of info/material/people,
Prdvty
Global
Proj Man
Forecast
Quality
Location
A/C budget costs
Low wage, less gov’t regu, low tax and tariffs
Budgetcost managewage,resources crash outsource costs
Plan max profit/investment income, reduce tax
JIT(low invent good supplier flexible staff), less cost
Global+better layout lowers costs
Fina
Better capitalgoods,efficient
Foreign exchange, reinvestfactory, inflation
Discounted cash flows (meet deadline)
Find alter to spend/save money on cap
Invest capital to produce higherquality products
Interest rates, invest land/capital
HR
Quality/education,diet, less stress better talent, diff safety/employ laws better worker agenda,workers with jobs, direction
Hire/lay off, training, planning shifts
Better workers, training/skill/ empowerment
Global+cost, Layout efficient work
Mkt
Easy product, high profit
Expand market, expand life cycle
Goal setting/defining project objectives trends for demand, ↑ market share
Quality products create competitive advantage
Exposure of product to local demand
MIS
Utilize tech new tech, new database
Help with scheduling as database can sort tasks
Software forecast demand inventory
Use software to create maintain uniformity
MS Visio for effective layouts
Entr
faster and cheaper to market? culture and their needs to adapt
Develop business plan
Build new products, R&D
Creating benchmarks and
