Ty Jackson, Randy Yeager, Joseph Andino, Monette Delsol, Douglas Jones
July 14, 2014
Dr. David Fogarty
Generalized deviations in risk analysis- Randy Yeager
Standard Deviation has been the norm for probability measurement in areas such as finance and engineering. This paper seeks to refine risk measurement by redefining volatility measures to reduce risk error. The questions are “how can we reduce probability error?” and “how do we define variables pertinent to risk evaluation?” The paper introduces five hypotheses to define variables and translate mathematical arguments to probability measures. The results are that researchers can use the five hypotheses together to pare down errors and better manage risk for portfolio construction and engineering protocols.
Range Shrinkage of Cognitive Ability Test Scores in Applicant Pools- Ty Jackson
In Germany, a government agency selects candidates for jobs from its applicant pool based on the test results of (2) cognitive ability tests. Applicants are chosen based on scores within a particular range of scores. This range restriction of scores must be re-qualified at times in order to improve the validity of the selection procedure (Wang, Kersting, & Hulsheger, 2010). The question asked is whether the range restriction for scores of the selected applicants is still valid. One of the hypotheses was that the variability of scores in the applicant pool would be lower than variability indicated in the national normative data (Wang, Kersting, & Hulsheger, 2010). The results of the study proved that the range restriction of scores was indeed lower, being 10-12% smaller than national norms, making it necessary to adjust the range restriction.
Global Warming- Joseph Andino
Global Warming is a heavily debated topic in the 21st Century. The study’s purpose was to research the environmental factors during the summer months and compare them to data from earlier records of weather anomalies such as temperature. The data would be compared regionally and to earlier timeframes to see if there was a difference in the temperature data. The research question was based on researcher’s curiosity of the heat waves that had been recorded in recent years. “Are such events manifestations of global warming or can they be explained by natural variation alone” (Volodin & Yurova, 2013, p.1)? The hypothesis is that global warming is occurring and the temperature anomalies are more frequent then they have been in the past. The study was able to prove that the hypothesis in question was correct. The consensus of the study is that it is more likely for temperature anomalies to occur today then it was in the 19th Century.
An examination of leadership practices in large, protestant congregations (Monette)
There are in the last seventy –five years alone thousands of empirical investigations of leadership been conducted, but it is not unequivocal and clear understanding exists as to what distinguishes leaders from non-leaders. Bennis and Nanu(1985) also illustrate the many differing interpretations which seek to explain leadership: an analysis decades ago has given more than 350 definitions of leadership. As Cronin (1989) states, “Leadership is one of the most widely talked about subjects and at the same time one of the most elusive and puzzling” (p. 45). He further remarks, “Almost anything that can be said about leadership can be contradicted with counter examples. Moreover, the whole subject is riddled with paradoxes” (p. 45).
The question is: