Submitted By Group 3: Arunava Maity, Firoj Kumar Meher, Parvez Izhar, Pooja Sharma
The Case Scope:
Section 1: Identification of current forecasting techniques used in the demand forecasting of existing and new products. Section 2: Idenitification of a better forecasting technique which can ease the process and improve the reliability and accuracy of the sales forecast.
The Case Background Notes:
Wilkins Regulator Company had built its strength on the below high-quality products. Plumbing Municipal waterworks Fire production Irrigation customer markets The general plumbing customer market represented approximately half of its sales revenue and the irrigation …show more content…
The only method use to forecast is experience and intuitivity. One of the major drawbacks of current forecasting methods is that it doesn’t consider seasonality in forecasting sales for PVB product line. Though it has been clearly stated that weather plays an important role sales of both bath and plumbing product segments.
The final level forecasts are not accurate. With the current forecasting methods only aggregated level values are accurate. Sales forecast should be accurate at the lowest level. As per the Exhibit 5, Unemployment rate is quite high as of Oct 2004 i.e 5.52 % and on an increasing trend (from 4.74 % in 2001 to 5.52 % in 2004) .The sales will be impacted severely with a higher and increasing unemployment which has not been considered in the current forecasting methods. As per Exhibit 6, Rate of interest in money and capital markets have declined drastically during 2002, 2003 and 2004 (from 6.92 % in 2001 to 4.35 % in 2004) . This means capital is available more easily now and competitors might also launch new products. This has not been factored into as WILKINS might face competitions from other competitors. The current demand forecasting method is based on “qualitative” techniques more than “quantitative” ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both excess