Political Science 2231E
As John Ikenberry says in his article in the New York Times: “The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century” (NY) In recent years there has been numerous articles, discussions and commentary as to whether global dominance is shifting from the West to the East, more particularly China and India. There is no doubt that there is a movement to the possibility of global power change from the West to the East when one examines specifically economic indicators. Both China and India in the last 10 years have experienced rapid economic growth based on standard economic indicators together with technological advancements. However even based on those indicators the United States still dominates on the key economic indicators. Moreover, a global balance of power shifting requires more than economics. To state that there is a shift in the global balance of power, that shift must also include both a military and political shift. Again, although there may be movement from both China and India in these areas, the reality of a shift has not yet occurred as the United States continues to hold dominance. Is the global balance of power shifting from the United States to China and India? This paper will prove that the United States remains the dominant power in the global world due to the Country’s diverse, multi-faceted and large economy, its well trained, well equipped and expansive military and the relationships it has developed both diplomatically and economically with its Asian allies and other emerging nations.
If the global balancing of power is shifting from the United States to China and India what are the consequences of such a shift. The United States has been the undisputed global power on the economic, political and military fronts and “for more than half a century, the United States has provided stability in the Pacific through its military presence there, its alliances with Japan and South Korea, its commitment to fostering economic progress.” (GPS p. 4) A shift in power from the West to the East, would affect all of the countries in the world, not just the United States, in some form or another, in their political, social and economic fabric. However, more fundamental and of greater concern is that if such a shift occurs it will not occur peacefully. As author James F. Hoge, Jr. states “major shifts of power between states, not to mention regions, occur infrequently and are rarely peaceful”. (Cite A Global Power Shift in the Making p.2) Therefore, both the possible rise of China and India as a global power to the detriment of the United States must be closely watched and monitored as author John J. Mearsheimer states “international politics is a nasty and dangerous business and no amount of goodwill can ameliorate the intense security competition that sets in when an aspiring hegemony appears in Eurasia”. (Cite China’s unpeaceful rise p. 160)
The United States despite its sluggish economy still has the largest world economy as evidenced by certain economic indicators, specifically Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stock market capitalization and foreign investment. China is facing a crucial test as it transitions into a market economy. China and India are experiencing increased inflation, real estate bubbles and growing shortages of key resources due to rapid growth. Beijing, particularly, is now tightening the money supply and hoping to cool down China’s economy, but if such an attempt fails, it could result in an economic crash (US ready). The United States, even though its economy is on the decline, still has the biggest and most productive economy in the world and is on top in terms of global economics in accordance with almost every economic indicator. The United States runs the biggest and most productive economy in the world. Americans are still far richer than most Chinese.