Millions of boys throughout football’s history have dreamed of being an NFL player. They watch their heroes on TV, and hope…one day…to be one of them. However, it’s not as easy as it seems to get INTO the NFL, or to STAY in the NFL.
The average stay for a football player in the NFL is 3-‐6 years, depending on who you ask. The average career for a wider receiver, however, is only 2.8 years.
While there are a lot of statistics available for football players, is there a way to predict how long a particular wide receiver will get to live his dream?
DEFINITION OF VARIABLES The purpose of this analysis is to analyze the main wide receiver statistics to see if a prediction can be made on career length.
The dependent variable, LENGTH of career, is determined by the following independent variables:
REC/GME: Receptions Per Game. The most important independent variable is most likely receptions per game, because that would indicate a consistent player with a lot of playing time.
REC: Total Receptions. Much like REC/GME, total receptions would indicate playing time and consistency, but over time.
RECYDS: Total Receiving Yards. If a wide receiver can catch long passes, it would follow that the player would have a longer career.
YDS/REC: Yards Per Reception. An average of yards per reception would indicate talent in comparison with other wide receivers.
TD: Touchdowns. The goal is to score, so touchdowns should increase career longevity.
LGREC: Longest Reception.
A long reception is more likely to get the ball into the end zone ad therefore could contribute to a longer NFL career.
YDS/GME: Yards Per Game. This is also similar to receptions per game, but could vary depending on the quarterback/receiver relationship.
A survey of articles on www.NFL.com under a “wide receiver statistics” search verifies that the above-‐mentioned