Forecasting and Customer Demand Design Essay

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| Customers – what products/services do customers want Forecasting – predicting timing and volume of customer demand Design – incorporating customer wants, manufacturability, and time to market Capacity planning – matching supply and demand Processing – controlling quality, scheduling work
Inventory – meeting demand requirements while managing costs
Purchasing – evaluating potential suppliers, supporting the needs of operations on purchased goods and services * Suppliers – monitoring supplier quality, on-time delivery, and flexibility; maintaining supplier relations * Location – determining the location of facilities * Logistics – deciding how to best move information and materials *

|

Service
Experience
Explicit Services
Implicit Services

Supporting Facility
Facilitating
Goods

Information
Four Stage Evolution
• 1st Stage (New Processes): See physical operations more effectively with information (USAA “paperless operation”) • 2nd Stage (New Knowledge): Substitute virtual activities for physical (USAA “automate underwriting”) • 3rd Stage (New Products): Use information to deliver value to customers in new ways (USAA “event oriented service”) • 4th Stage (New Relationships): Seek customer collaboration in co-creation of value (USAA “financial planning service”)

| * | | | Trend
-A long-term upward or downward movement in data
Population shifts
Changing income
Seasonality
-Short-term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar or time of day
-Restaurants, service call centers, and theaters all experience seasonal demand
Cycle
-Wavelike variations lasting more than one year
These are often related to a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions
Random Variation
-Residual variation that remains after all other behaviors have been accounted for
Irregular variation
-Due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior
Labor strike
Weather event

Qualitative Forecasting
-Qualitative techniques permit the inclusion of soft information such as:
Human factors
Personal opinions
Hunches
-These factors are difficult, or impossible, to quantify
Quantitative Forecasting
-Quantitative techniques involve either the projection of historical data or the development of associative
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