Why is forecasting for any new drug so important? Why for Denosumab?
Drug forecasting is a very important and essential process for any drug for multiple reasons: 1. Cost: The drug development is a lengthy and an expensive process. It will aid in the predevelopment process to identify future demand and to identify if it is a worthwhile venture. The future of a company could depend on the success or failure of a new drug in the market. 2. Profitability 3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste. 4. Competition: Assess the
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Historical, current, and future trends: The trends for the use of the drug in the future market. Also analyzing the market share of each of the drugs and the dosing patterns. 2. Existing and undiagnosed patient population: The market for osteoporosis drugs and the bone metastasis drugs is increasing as the age of the population is increasing and disease prevalence is increasing. International Osteoporosis Foundation estimates that the disease affects 200 million women worldwide - approximately one-tenth of women aged 60, one-fifth of women aged 70, two-fifths of women aged 80 and two-thirds of women aged 90. USA statistics report that by the year 2010, it is estimated that more than 52 million women and men in this same age category will be affected and, if current trends continue, the figure would climb to more than 61 million by 2020. More than half of the population at risk is unidentified. 3. Unmet market needs: The market needs for osteoporosis are existent and prevalent. In addition the available drugs for skeletal related events for bone metastases are limited. 4. Existing products patent expiration dates: Fosamax is now generic. Actonel patent expires in May 2012; Boniva first patent expires in March 2012. This allows the threat of generic substitution and can affect market share. 5. New market entrants: No new drugs are in the pipeline for the treatment of osteoporosis. 6.