Forecasting Technology Essay

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Forecasting Technology
Melissa Gillis
Grantham University
Strategies for Change
BA580
Dr. Diane Hamilton
July 27, 2013

Forecasting Technology
Adoption & Diffusion Many factors influence the adoption and diffusion of innovations this is how we better understand a successful adoption. However, not all innovations work for its intended purpose to the market industry it is trying to serve. There are many problems that arise during adoption of innovation such as: economic, behavioral, organizational, and structural (Tidd & Bessant, 2009, p. 351). Diffusion helps us validate or better understand the direction we should go when deciding on and adoption. Furthermore, diffusion is a process of how we communicate among members of a social system (Tidd & Bessant, 2009, p.352). Adoption and diffusion now have a more precise way they measure a more accurate approach. This is a new method of marketing mix called the 4A’s; affordability, awareness, acceptability, and accessibility, Seth and Shaw (as cited in Nezakati, Ali, & Noghondari, 2011, p.833). Many companies and policy makers believe innovation and through trial and error it will change the market and people’s behavior (Merton, 2013, p.1). There is risk involved with innovation, but by building strong models capturing all dimensions you have a better chance of reaching the market (Merton, 2013, p. 6).
Forecasting Technology Forecasting technology plays a major role in business planning for the market and for innovation. Forecasting provides a foundation for gathering information and sharing data. Moreover, the method used for forecasting will depend on several factors such as: what we are forecasting, rate of market change, availability, planning horizon resources available (Tidd & Bessant, 2009, p. 344). Even with forecasting and when examining new trends in the world no one can ever be certain of an industries success (Manjoo, 2013). Forecasting began in the 1940’s futurist considered it investigating how social, economics, and technology would change the future. Furthermore, they advised on new global trends and emerging market opportunities. Futurist then used three main methods revelation of current realities, modeling, and scenario. (Denning, 2012, pp.1-2). Today the most common methods of forecasting are: customer or market surveys, internal analysis, brainstorming, Delphi or expert opinion, and scenario development. Customer market surveys have a disadvantage there is really no concrete way to identify…