Alpha: The intercept of the regression. This is a measure of whether the fund is over or under priced.
Beta: The coefficient of the market. This is a comparison of risk between the fund and the market.
Std. Deviation: This is a measure of the size of changes and therefore inherent risk of the fund.
Rsquare: measures the correlation of the numbers used to create the regression.
Alpha Tstat: measure the reliability of the alpha numbers. Greater than 1.96 is considered reliable.
3.
| TEPLX | PRWCX | JANSX | FMAGX | TWCGX | OARDX | Months | 2790.936 | 76.02881 | 10544.9 | 732.047 | 21878.75 | 5148.605 |
OARDX is the only fund that shows any proper timing, but its Alpha t-stat isn’t high enough to be reliable (>1.96). All other funds show improper timing abilities, TEPLX and PRCWX are close to being reliably incorrect in their timing, but they aren’t fully there yet.
