“The Club Français du Vin” case study
This case study discusses ordering and forecasting process of the wine company Club Français du Vin. As the name suggests, this is a French company that offers French wines to the consumers trough catalog offers. The main catalog is the Etiquette, which includes a selection of 30 to 40 wines that the clients can then choose and order by mail, phone, fax or by internet. The members also receive other two leaflets, La Selection (shows three recommendations for the season) and La Cave (consists of a list of wines and corresponding prices, that are available also – this are mainly leftovers from the previous season and are heavily discounted).
The …show more content…
Other information (like forecast, retail price and previous forecasting errors) were taken from the tables provided in the case study description.
To illustrate our calculations we are going to analyze the case of Faugeres wine: * P=6,8 => C=cost=50%*P+1,25=4,65 * Red wine => 15 months in the warehouse => H=holding cost=15*0,1=1,5 * Discount value=30% => R=re-sale value=30%*P=4,76 * Cost of capital=15% => monthly cost of capital=15%/12=1,25% * CC=total cost of capital=(1,25%*15)*H+15%*C=0,98 * Cost (late)=H+CC=2,48 * V=salvage value=R-Cost(late)=2,28 * Co=overage cost=C-V=2,37 * Cu=underage cost=P-C=2,15 * Critical Ratio=Cu/(Cu+Co)=0,4758 = F(Q) * F(Q)=0,4758 => z=-0,0607 * E(forecast error)=0,8652 => E(demand)=0,8652*forecast=10383 * Std Dev (forecast error)=0,3927 => Std Dev(demand)=0,3927*forecast=4713 * Z=(Q-mean)/Std Dev => Q=(z*Std Dev)+mean=10097
Doing the same for all the other wines we were able to determine the optimal order quantity that enables the company to yield the higher expected profit possible given the uncertainty about demand (otherwise the optimal order would be simply the forecasted demand which would be equal to the actual demand). With this we