MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

6. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

8. Qualitative methods are

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Use two places after the decimal.

33. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

34. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Year Sales Forecast 2003 7 9 2004 12 10 2005 14 15 2006 20 22 2007 16 18 2008 25 21|

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

35. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual Demand

March 20

April 25

May 40

June 35

July 30

August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

36. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

37. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

38. The following data