(www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/stream/alreadyinnz/residents/nextsteps/prvrequirements.htm)(www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/media/economy.htm) states that the over 10 years, there are more and more foreigner has moving into New Zealand and 25% of our population is Non New Zealand born. Im going to investigate whether or not there is a increase of migrants moving into New Zealand and if so what is the rate of the change? I will then make a compansion with migration data from statistics New Zealand with quarterly long term migration figures for males and females from 1978 to 2012.
Year | Queue | titted | lower 95% bound | upper 95% bound | 2013 | Q1 | 25465 | 23086 | 27844 | 2013 | Q2 | 17325 | 14551 | 20100 | 2013 | Q3 | 22981 | 19860 | 26101 | 2013 | Q4 | 22405 | 18973 | 25837 | 2014 | Q1 | 25660 | 21484 | 29836 | 2014 | Q2 | 17520 | 13107 | 21934 | 2014 | Q3 | 23175 | 18537 | 27814 | 2014 | Q4 | 22560 | 17746 | 27453 |
I can see that an uphill tendency for my long term trend is fluctuate indicating that the long term trend is increasing. This means that as time has gone on we have more migrant entry into New Zealand. I can see that my highest peak is about 30000 people, and my lowest trough is about 6000 people. This gives me a variation of about 24000 people. On my seasonal graph, I can see that the peaks are about 2200 people above the trend line, and the troughs are about -2600 below the trend line, this gives me an overall seasonal variation of a about 4800 people. This means that about (4800/24000) x100%= 20%. This means that not much of variation is due to seasonality. For my residuals graph, I’m looking for any spikes that are more than 10% of my total variation (i.e. 1900 people above or below the trend line). I can see that I have a value higher than 1900 people in 2003. This spike at 2003 needs to further investigation
On my seasonal graph, I can see that my peaks occur around January—March, this is when the number of migrant entry into New Zealand is at its greatest area. This considers with that we just have all the holidays (like Christmas) and we would like to have a new start at the beginning of the year. I can also see that my troughs occur about April–June, this is the number of migrant entry into New Zealand is at its lowest area. This considers with its about into winter in New…