Mat 540 Mid Term Exam Essay

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5/8/2015

Quantitative Methods Mid term Question 1 Deterministic techniques | Maggie Moore ­ Academia.edu
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Quantitative Methods Mid term Question 1 Deterministic techniques Quantitative Methods
Mid term
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Selected Answer: True
Question 2 An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time.
For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Selected Answer: True
Question 3 A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Selected Answer: False
Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Selected Answer: False
Question 5 A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Selected Answer: False
Question 6
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model. Selected Answer: False
Question 7
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Selected Answer: False https://www.academia.edu/9102107/Quantitative_Methods_Mid_term_Question_1_Deterministic_techniques 1/11

5/8/2015

Quantitative Methods Mid term Question 1 Deterministic techniques | Maggie Moore ­ Academia.edu

Question 8
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Selected Answer: True
Question 9 is a measure of dispersion of random variable values __________ about the expected value.
Selected Answer: Standard Deviation
Question 10
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Selected Answer: Marginal
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Selected Answer: Expected Value of Perfect Information
Question 12
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Selected Answer: Sampling from
Question 13
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be Answer: 3
Selected
Question 14 A seed value is a(n)
Selected Answer: number used to start a stream of random numbers
Question 15
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Selected Answer: Mathematical / Physical

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5/8/2015

Quantitative Methods Mid term Question 1 Deterministic techniques | Maggie Moore ­ Academia.edu

Question 16
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period
Demand
Forecast
1
7
10
2
12
15
3
18
20
4
22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Selected Answer: 22
Question 17 __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Selected Answer: Qualitative
Question 18
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Selected Answer: Trend Only
Question 19 is the difference between the forecast and actual __________ demand. Selected Answer: Forecast error

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Maggie Moore

Question 20 __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Selected
Trend
 top 2% Answer:
 682 Linear


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Quantitative Methods Mid term Question 1 Deterministic techniques | Maggie Moore ­ Academia.edu

Question 21
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a…