Introduction to Psychology
November 19, 2013
Hindsight Bias Demonstrated in the Prediction of a Sporting Event
This study was conducted in classrooms with students that were currently enrolled in psychology classes that had previously analyzed hindsight bias. This study was conducted to examine hindsight bias in the context of a sporting event (Super Bowl XXXIII) with individuals who had previous knowledge of the hindsight bias. They were trying to answer the question of whether or not hindsight bias exists or if it does not exist.
The participants were 42 participants who are currently enrolled in psychology classes that had previously analyzed hindsight bias. The participants were 13 men and 29 women and the mean age of all participants were 19 years old. Before Super Bowl week in 1999, they asked the participants to predict who they thought would win the Super Bowl.
This was a case study that used an experiment and survey method to see if participants were surprised by the outcome of the game. The participants were asked to indicate how often they watched football either, “all of the time,” “some of the time,” or “never.” They then gave other information such as age or gender. The Monday that followed the game all of the participants were surveyed to indicate who they thought would win and whether or not they were surprised by the outcome of the game.
There were no differences between how often the participants watched football and whom they predicted to win. Those that chose Denver to win, 2 reported to watching football all of the time, 14 reported to watching football some of the time, and 11 reported to watching football