Central Asia’s Political 4
Contrastive research 4
Russia's influence in central Asia 5
Could Central Asian tensions lead to worse things than the Arab Spring? 5
It will not cause regional situation out of control. 6
Kazakhstan resources 7
Relationship between China and Russia 7
China and Russia's Great Game in Central Asia 9
Russia's influence in the region is quickly waning 11
The relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia 12
New Silk Road 12
Asia Gas Pipeline 13
Lack of transparency -- China's investments and relations with Central Asia 14
A long way 15
In this paper, I want to explore what the future development between China and Central Asia (Kazakhstan). If China makes efforts to turn Russia its junior partner in Central Asia. If relations between the USA and Russia deteriorate and forced countries to make hard choices. I will identify potential issues in different stage through data analysis, political, cultural and economical dimensions between China and Central Asia in the next decade.
Central Asia refers to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrghyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, part of the southern area of Russia, and Xinjiang area of China. From the point of view of resources, Central Asia is rich in oil and natural gas resources, so it is apparently in an important position. The importance of Central Asia, however, is also demonstrated from its political status, for the reason that it borders on Russia in the north and China in the east. Once the power of a third country enters Central Asia, it will affect the balance of the area strategically. Eventually, the new power will threaten China in the east and Russia in the north. We can say that Central Asia is a military-strategic area from the world's political and economic pattern.
Central Asia’s Political
Most of the Central Asian countries can retain a relatively stable situation due to a variety of reasons. In the meantime, there are also some unstable factors. Most people want to maintain stable status in this area. Thus, most of the countries choose to adopt measures to prevent and overcome some unstable factors. Hence, the relatively stable situation will be continued in a certain period of time. In terms of Tajikistan, the situation is more complicated. The opposition was formed earlier, and meanwhile has a strong power. Therefore, it is difficult to assess if the situation can be stabilized. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzberkistan, and Kyrgyzstan, are paying more attention to the current situation of Tajikistan, and are strengthening the prevention. So, the unstable factors in Tajikistan have not caused chain reaction in the region, despite the threat to these countries.
The Stratfor experts Robert D. Kaplan and Lauren Goodrich argue that "Central Asian tensions could lead to worse things than the Arab Spring." In their view, Central Asia constitutes the world’s most fascinating geopolitical experiment and it is politically unstable. Meanwhile, E. Wayne Merry also claims that "the probability is high that all five Central Asian regimes will suffer systemic failure." First, they can fail to achieve viability in the tasks of modernization and in reversing their decline ever deeper into the Third World. Second, they can fail as structures of political control.
Russia's influence in central Asia
The Central Asian sovereign states themselves have the most at stake and the most to gain by playing the new great game effectively. However, while some of these states are in the position to keep Russia's military force out and reduce Russia's soft power influence, such as Kazakhstan, the poorer Central Asian states, such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, one of their only cards is to play both sides (or all three, Russia, China, and the West) in hopes that they will all compete for influence by means of economic and military aid and