Risk Analysis And Risk Management In An Uncertain World

Submitted By dimingli
Words: 7531
Pages: 31
Open Document
Risk Analysis, Va!. 22, No.4, 2002

Perspectives

Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World l
Howard Kunreuther*

The tragic attacks o[ September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where thcre is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This papcr discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options [or dealing with extrcmc events. In particular, it suggests ways that the members of the Society for Risk Analysis can apply thcir expertise and talent to the risks associated with terrorism and discusses the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with extreme events.

1. INTRODUCTION

• How can we link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options that are likely to be successfully implemented?
• What are the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with these risks?
• How can we utilize lessons from dealing with past extreme events in helping to plan for the future? I am honored to receive the Distinguished
Achievement Award from the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). SRA is a unique organization because its membership is drawn from the physical and biological sciences, engineering, and the social sciences.
This blend of researchers and practitioners provides an opportunity for creative dialog with respect to a wide variety of problems involving risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world.
The tragic attacks of September 11 and the ensuing bioterrorist threats associated with anthrax have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences, The following questions should be addressed in order to develop meaningful strategies for dealing with these extreme events:

I believe SRA can help develop strategies for coping with the fallout from these unprecedented events.
This paper will address the challenges and opportunities for SRA in playing this leadership role. Rather than referencing the wide range of relevant papers that have appeared in Risk Analysis and other journals on the topics discussed here, I have listed a selected set of recent books and papers, many of which provide a comprehensive list of references relevant to the topics discussed in this paper.
2. RISK ASSESSMENT 2

This article is the text [rom a speech given by Dr. Kunreuther on
December 3, 2002, at the annual meeting of the Society for Risk
Analysis (SRA) held in Seattle, Washington. The speech was given
[allowing Dr. Kunreuther's acceptancc of the SRA Distinguished
Achievement Award (co-recipient with Dr. Suresh Moolgavkar).
* Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, The
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
19107; Visiting research scientist, Columbia University.
I

One of the cornerstones of SRA's success has been the many contributions that the membership has made to the area of risk assessment, ranging from
2 See Haimes (199R) [or a comprehensive summary o[ recent work in risk assessment.

655

0272-433210210800-0655$22.00/l

ee)

2002 Society for Risk Analysis

656

Kunreuther

early studies of fault and event trees for nuclear power to National Academy studies on understanding risk
(National Research Council, 1996).

to see if there is a degree of consensus on the nature of the risk.
2.2. Use of Exceedance Probability (EP) Curves

2.1. Nature of the Field
The field of risk assessment encompasses studies that estimate the chances of a specific set of events occurring and/or their potential consequences. For those like myself who are users rather than creators of risk assessments and vulnerability studies, we need to appreciate that
Show More

Related Documents: Risk Analysis And Risk Management In An Uncertain World

Qualitative Research Report

Research Report Business Research Skills Qualitative Research Report Teresa Cooney B00251777 Teresa Cooney B00251777 Contents Introduction 2 1. Research Design 3 1.1 Qualitative Research Methods 3 1.2 Thematic Analysis 3 2. Findings and Analysis 6 References 8 Appendix 1 9 Appendix 2 13 Introduction This report has been commissioned by the University of the West of Scotland (Paisley campus) for the Business Research Skills course. All the information contained…

Words 4039 - Pages 17

Decision Theory Essay

backbay@gmail.com QuantUniversity LLC. Adjunct Lecturer Hult International Business School Session 4 - Part 1 Copyright 2014 QuantUniversity LLC. Cannot be reproduced or used without written permission from QuantUniversity LLC. Elements of Decision Analysis  Although decision making under uncertainty occurs in a wide variety of contexts, all problems have three common elements: The set of decisions (or strategies) available to the decision maker, 2. The set of possible outcomes and the probabilities…

Words 917 - Pages 4

Situation Analysis: Phase Separation Solutions

Phase Separation Solutions (PS2) Case Analysis Group Team Leader : Mrs Ei Phyusin Htay Situation Analysis Phase Separation Solutions Inc (PS2), founded in 2004 in Canada, is a young environmental management & consulting company who licensed a patent of unique TPS technology for PCB contaminated soil treatment and oil sludge recovery, having a vision of fully integrated International environmental service company. The firm's competencies, weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats are…

Words 1066 - Pages 5

Risk Management Plan

MARCH 19, 2014 RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN WATER PROJECT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA PREPARED BY MINA GADELRAB 11584190 Risk Management Plan – 11584190 TABLE OF CONTENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 3 1. 2. 3. 4. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1. Project Information ....................................................…

Words 5845 - Pages 24

How Should Risk Assessment Help To Guide The Decision Process On Veterinary Biologicals

int/eng/publicat/A_RT14.htm Limitations, definitions, principles and methods of risk analysis D.W. NORTH Summary: Decisions on veterinary biologicals involve large uncertainties, complexities which cut across many scientific and technical disciplines, and large potential adverse impacts on public health and on important sectors of the economy. How should risk assessment help to guide the decision process on veterinary biologicals? How can risk assessment practices be harmonized internationally, given the different…

Words 4635 - Pages 19

Market: Financial Markets and Efficient Markets Hypothesis Essay

uncertainty and risks must be distinguished in financial mark, which concepts that talk about expectations in future. In general, all activities in business carry some risk, but some are inherently more risky than others. However, uncertainty is a word that connotes actions or events over which one has no control and may occur in future. Risk and Uncertainty are concepts that talk about expectations in future, but whereas financial managers can minimize risk to face an uncertain future, they cannot…

Words 1300 - Pages 6

RB1 Very Short Essay

BANKING – Juggling risks - for profit How do it? How learn how to do it? How develop Retail Bank? How get Competitive Advantage? RETAIL BANKING – Juggling risks - as teams & organisation How do it? How learn how to do it? How develop Retail Bank? How get Competitive Advantage? Real world Models of Retail Banks Overview – ‘juggler’ Retail banking – juggling financial risks - and returns /profits Individuals & teams in Bank firms Retail banking – juggling financial risks - and returns /profits…

Words 2982 - Pages 12

Bio Lab Essay example

Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 12, 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01324.x Information Processing of Genetically Modified Food Messages Under Different Motives: An Adaptation of the Multiple-Motive Heuristic-Systematic Model Jooyoung Kim1,∗ and Hye-Jin Paek2 Recent risk management research has noted the importance of understanding how the lay public processes and reacts to risk-related information. Guided by the multiple-motive heuristic-systematic model, this study examines (1) how…

Words 9138 - Pages 37

Essay Case Analysis

CASE ANALYSIS Contents |ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………… |3 | |1 Macro-Economic Conditions ……………………………………………… |4 | | 1.1 Basic information…………………………………………………… |4 | | 1.2Macro-environmental Risk……………………………………………

Words 7977 - Pages 32

Denver Airport Case Essay

_____________________________ Course Title: Busniess Management Lecturer Name: John Lamont Module/Subject Code: B8MG022 Module/Subject Title: Project Planning Techniques Assignment Title: Denver International Airport No of Words: 2600 Note technical support is available to student between 0930- 1700 hrs only. There is no technical support after 1700 hrs. It is your responsibility to ensure that you allow time to troubleshoot any technical difficulties by…

Words 3062 - Pages 13