# Test: Output and Proj Man Forecast Essay

Submitted By daiyi3
Words: 869
Pages: 4

PERT: optimistic time(a), pessimistic time(b), most likely(m). t=(a+4m+b)/6 Variance=[(b-a)/6]2, Project variance=sum(variance of activity of critical path) Z=(due date – expected completion date)/ project variance MAD = (4=99.9% sd3.2, 3=98% sd2.4, 2=89%)
Exponential Smooth+Trend adjust: Ft = α(At-1) + (1 – α)(Ft-1 + Tt-1) Exponential Smoothing: Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 – Ft-1)
Tt = β(Ft – Ft-1) + (1 – β)Tt-1 β = smoothing constant for trend α = Smoothing(weighting) constant Forecast include trend = Ft + Tt
Seasonality: 1) average demand of each season. 2) average all season demands 3) Find seasonal index with [1)/2)] 4) estimate next year total annual demand 5) total demand/ # of seasons*index R-Charts: UCL = D R LCL = D R
Prdvty: Why: measure of output, improvement leads to better efficiency, standard of living, higher payments to labor, capital and management, more income How: Productivity variables(labor 10% education/health , Capital 38% inflation/tax , Management 52% manage labor/capital). Changing global focus, rapid product development, mass customization, empowered employee. Reduce input/Increase output
Global: Why: reduce cost(input,tax) increase demand/market. How: Compete with differentiation, low cost, and/or fast response. 4 international operating strategies: global strategy Texas instruments, Transactional strategy cross culture learning, Multidomestic strategy Franchises, International strategy (import/export), culture, local economy, wage, resource
CH 3: Why: deadline, assigning resource/activity, spot/tackle problem, monitor cost, relation of activity, prioritize How: Project Plan(Work breakdown structure), Scheduling(Gantt Chart/PERM/CPM), Control(feedback/revise/reports)
CH 4: Why: Predict future events and make decision accordingly. Monitor cost. How: use of forecast, select forecast item, select time horizons, what model(qual/quan), gather data, make forecast, validate/use results(rarely perfect, assume stable system, family forecast better)
CH 6: Why: Cost of Quality, relates to reputation/product liability/globally. How: TQM(PDCA, six signma DMAIC, employee empowerment, benchmark, JIT, Taguchi(Robust), other Tools(graphs/diagrams)
CH 8/9: Why: Location/layout benefits, better use of location/layout, morale/safety/flexibility/interaction. How: Site(nearby)/country(culture/econ/government/labor/supplier/currency)/regional(labor/environment/government/land cost) service location. Layout: higher use of space/equip/people, flow of info/material/people,

Prdvty
Global
Proj Man
Forecast
Quality
Location
A/C budget costs
Low wage, less gov’t regu, low tax and tariffs
Budgetcost managewage,resources crash outsource costs
Plan max profit/investment income, reduce tax
JIT(low invent good supplier flexible staff), less cost
Global+better layout lowers costs
Fina
Better capitalgoods,efficient
Foreign exchange, reinvestfactory, inflation
Find alter to spend/save money on cap
Invest capital to produce higherquality products
Interest rates, invest land/capital
HR
Quality/education,diet, less stress better talent, diff safety/employ laws better worker agenda,workers with jobs, direction
Hire/lay off, training, planning shifts
Better workers, training/skill/ empowerment
Global+cost, Layout efficient work
Mkt
Easy product, high profit
Expand market, expand life cycle
Goal setting/defining project objectives trends for demand, ↑ market share