MEMO # 1
The Importance of Information and Signaling
International Politics and Security
Iran acquiring Nuclear Weapons has kicked up a storm across the world with the International community adamant at making sure that Iran doesn’t go about its plans as it could seriously put to risk the security of the entire world. How legitimate the concerns are, is yet to be substantiated. Israel and US alike are the most concerned and with continued threats and anti-Israeli under tone to everything that the politicians in Iran specifically President of Iran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and its Supreme leader: Seyed Ali Khamenei have to say has alarmed many in the International community. US in specific has been openly vocal about its dissent over Iran’s illegal Uranium enrichment under the guise of it being used for civil purposes. According to me, the main actors in this ongoing crisis are: 1) Iranian government and its leaders in specific Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. 2) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and its Defense Minister Ehud Barak. 3) The US government.
Iranian ability of creating an atom bomb is already well established with IAEA having already inspected its nuclear sites and confirming that the enrichment of Uranium was way above than is required for civilian use. The big question that we need to ask is why would Iran want to have nuclear weapons and why is Israel and the world at large barring a couple of Iranian allies (China and Russia) opposed to it? Iran is surrounded by two nuclear powers to the east and has a continuing threat from the west, and in my opinion more than wanting to strike Israel with its nuclear weapons the Iranian politicians want the support of its people for which Israel is an easy ‘enemy-element’ to get public support. There are various other objectives that would be effectively served if Iran gets nuclear weapons that would add firepower to its very strong armed forces. 1) It has the ability to create one on its own 2) It will have greater say/influence in International politics 3) To deter any interference in their regional & International ambitions 4) Continued threat would attract Economic incentives as opposed to sanctions 5) Will have greater bargaining power.
On the other hand, Israel’s concerns over Iran acquiring nuclear weapons are well known but the legitimacy of the so-called threat is yet to be proven. Israel itself is a nuclear power and has the capability to counter aggression of any kind be it conventional war or nuclear war. To me there is way more than just the threat factor of being bombed involved that’s making Israel give out stern warnings to Iran. Israel’s concern about its security with countries like Egypt, Syria and the continued support that it’s sworn enemies in the region Hamas and Hezbollah get from Iran is not hidden. Since 1967, Israel has been a force to reckon with in the region and it could pretty much do whatever it wanted, but a nuclear powered Iran would be a threat to its strategic position in the region. The objective of an aggressive stand against Iran works in Israeli favor too. 1) It is not to neutralize the existing threat but to reassert its status in the region. 2) Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons 3) And an actual attack would be a strategic move aimed at the entire region.
The third and final actor in the ongoing crisis is the US. It is currently playing an extremely passive role and has been trying to persuade Israel to find a diplomatic solution rather than a military one. The US definitely views the Iranian nuclear threat as it is and it cannot do much about it right now since it would mean its value on the world stage would spiral down. The two wars waged in the last decade by the US has attracted wide spread public condemnation after it was initially