Essay on Probability: Decision Theory and University Introduction Probability

Submitted By ladybugs77
Words: 780
Pages: 4

Unit 2 – The Concept of Probability – MAIN POST

American InterContinental University
Introduction
Probability is considered the “bane” of age; according to Moreland; (2013). The fact being most individuals have no idea what is happening around them; then their conclusion of life is based on inaccurate and irrelevant premises.
According to my experience so far in this class my probability of receiving an “A” is zero. Factors on why I have come to this conclusion is of many such as; my first individual project I have received a failing grade, the intellipath program I need to repeat several times with this class or receive very low grades on the nodes. The reason why I think I cannot grasp this subject so well is because I have a hard time remembering how to do my math. I have been with this school for three years and have never had a problem receiving “A’s” in any of my courses except two; algebra and this one. I really wanted to quit and give up! It just irritates me that I cannot grasp it as quick as I want; plus I am a perfectionist and I really need to see that “A”…lol...this is really going to be a tough one for me.
I do not believe all students will arrive at the same conclusion as I have simply for the reason I stated above. Some individuals are quicker learners than others, some people are just able to look at something and totally understand it and some people like myself in this case would probably need a little more time and some assistance with someone in person instead of online or over the phone to understand it a little better simply for the reason of being rusty in areas of schooling that you have not used since you have gotten out of school because you had not reason to and did not really realize what it did until you needed it again. Subjective probability; estimation of relative frequency of each, various forthcoming result based on intuition or experience of the accountant making the estimate. Subjective probability is used in various business situations such as; dollar returns on investment decisions and estimating rates. Basing on the treasurers experience we presume a financial officer is contemplating a likely interest amount a business could count on paying for bonds it is intending to issue next week. The financial officer suspects that interest rates could only have four probable values. The subjective evaluation is as follows; (all business; 2013).
Interest Rate
Probability This will Happen
9%
.2
91/4 %
.3
9 ½ %
.4
9 ¾ %
.1

A good example of using subjective probability is when I am sick and need to go to the doctors; or when my children were sick; nine times out of time because of my experience as a mother; I knew what the problem was (illness) with my child and when it was the right time to take them to the doctor to get a prescription without wasting my time or the doctors. Meaning if I went too early they…