Chapt.11 Essay

Submitted By JennecaSparks1
Words: 648
Pages: 3

7/17/2012

Decision Making

Organizational
Behavior

Talya Bauer and Berrin Erdogan

Programmed vs. Unprogrammed Decisions
Programmed decisions are straightforward decisions that occur frequently enough that an automated response is developed The automated response is called the decision rule

Decision making refers to making choices among choices among alternative courses of action.
- May also include inaction

Rational Decision Making Model
1. Identify the problem Unprogrammed decisions are unique and require conscious thinking, information gathering and careful consideration of alternatives 2. Establish decisions criteria

8. Evaluate the decision 3. Weigh decision criteria

7. Implement the decision

6. Choose the best alternative

4. Generate alternatives 5. Evaluate the alternatives 1

7/17/2012

Flaws of the Rational Decision Making Model
Assumes that people understand what the decision to be made is

Bounded Rationality Model
Individuals knowingly limit their options and choose the best alternative without conducting an exhaustive search for alternatives

A “good enough” decision is made Assumes that people know all their available choices
Assumes the people have no perceptual biases
Assumes that people want to make optimal decisions

Making Intuitive Decisions
Within a given situation, experts making decisions scan the environment for cues to recognize environment for cues to recognize patterns. Once a pattern is recognized, they can plan a potential course of action based on their prior experience.

Satisficing may occur which refers to accepting the first alternative that meets minimum criteria

The Creative Decision Making Process

Step 1

Problem
Recognition

Step 5
Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Immersion

Incubation

Illumination

Verification
&
Application

2

7/17/2012

Choosing A Decision Making Model
Decision Making
Model
Rational

Bounded
Rationality

Intuitive

Creative

Use This Model When:
• Information on alternatives can be gathered and quantified. • The decision is important.
• You are trying to maximize your outcome.
• The minimum criteria are clear. minimum criteria are clear.
• You do not have or you are not willing to invest much time to making the decision.
• You are not trying to maximize your outcome.
• Goals are unclear.
• There is time pressure and analysis paralysis would be costly. • You have experience with the problem.
• Solutions to the problem are not clear.
• New solutions need to be generated.
• You have time to immerse yourself in the issues.

Opposite Biases
Overconfidence Bias

Hindsight Bias

Overestimating the ability to predict future events

Looking backward in time where mistakes made seem obvious after they have already occurred already occurred

82% of drivers surveyed feel they are in the top 30% of safe drivers

May cause an individual to
incorrectly